Institutional factors in the scenario forecasting of the development of research potential

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify possible scenarios for the development of scientific potential and dependence of their probabilities on the state of institutions and the institutional environment. The specification of the parameters of the scenario forecasting model was carried out on the basis of an expert survey conducted in two rounds using the questionnaire method. When assessing various parameters of the forecast model (scenarios, factors of the forecast background and possible events that determine the impact of these factors on the scenarios of the reproduction of scientific potential), experts were asked to proceed from a ten-year lead-time period (conditionally until 2030). The most significant indicators reflecting the influence of institutional conditions on the development of scientific potential, including state policy, economic development, international cooperation, human capital, state of the education sector, dominant values, etc. are identified. Four main scenarios of the development of scientific potential are considered: "Global competition", "Inertial reproduction”, “Imitation of innovative development” and “Mobilization breakthrough”. Scenario forecasting allows to identify the possibility of managerial impact on the factors of the forecast background in order to minimize the likelihood of undesirable developments and maximize the likelihood of acceptable scenarios. According to the results of the study, it is concluded that the transition to scenarios involving the development of scientific potential will require the creation of institutional conditions that stimulate the development of science and the innovative sector of the economy, as well as the development of mutually beneficial international cooperation in high technology.