THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF SOCIAL FORECASTING IN PROTEST ACTIVITY

Abstract

The article considers theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of protest activity and its relationship with the theoretical model of research with the aim of clarifying and supplementing the conceptual apparatus presented in sociological knowledge. Within the framework of social forecasting of protest activity, the theoretical analysis was based on the theory of "social action" by M. Weber, which allowed us to consider protest activity and protest potential through goal-rational and value-rational actions. The result of this approach is the conclusion: at the stage of finalizing the development of the forecast (at the final stage) of protest activity, the forecasting object is transformed into protest potential, since the predicted protest (social) action has not yet been committed. Potential protest actions in social forecasting should be a structural element of protest activity and be identified in its definition at the initial stage of the research, which will allow not to lose the indicators of the protest potential from the "forecast field" and to get a comprehensive social forecast of protest activity on the "output".