STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF PROBABILITY OF FINANCIAL INSOLVENCY OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN THE CONDITIONS OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION

Abstract

The problem of diagnosis and prevention of financial insolvency of the domestic enterprises is one of the central problems in the system of anti-crisis financial management. Taking into account the crisis in the economy and the cyclical increase in the number of bankruptcies, it is of particular relevance in theoretical and applied aspects. The most acute problem is the bankruptcy in the industry, the development of which is an essential factor in the growth of the national economy in the context of import substitution. Every fifth domestic company is on track to bankruptcy. In this situation an important task is recognition of the crisis and prevention of possible failure in the future. With a significant arsenal of assessment methods of probability of bankruptcy used by financial management of industrial enterprises; the choice of methods and models is still the actual problem which could provide an objective assessment of the state of the enterprise and to point out the causes of the crisis. Traditional methods of financial analysis give only an approximate gradation degree of the threat of bankruptcy, without providing information on the amount of errors of wrong diagnosis. In order to resolve these contradictions the article presents the methodical approach to forecasting financial insolvency of enterprises, based on extensive use of statistical tools. Complex use of statistical modeling methods, multivariate statistical analysis of comparative, statistical pattern of recognition the images allow on a scientific theoretical basis to provide a guaranteed accuracy of forecasting results and an objective diagnosis of the financial insolvency and the formation of high-quality information base for management anti-crisis decisions in the real economy.