MILITARY FACTOR IN THE REGIONAL BALANCE OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to analyze the military-political potential of the states of the Middle East subsystem of international relations. To achieve this purpose, five tasks were set. First, to formulate initial hypotheses for assessing the regional balance of power. Second, to determine the characteristic features of the Middle East subsystem in modern international relations. Third, to conduct a comparative analysis of the military power of the Middle East states. Fourth, to study the Middle East security systems at the present stage. Fifth, to identify the features of the key zones of armed tension in the Middle East. The complex and multifaceted nature of the geopolitical situation in the region and the dynamics of changes in the three main conflict zones (Syria-Iraq, Palestine-Israel and Yemen) made it possible to identify a tendency towards erosion of the state-centric world order, however, it would be premature to draw a conclusion about a significant increase in the role of non-state actors and the transition to non-polarity described in the works of R. Haas. Conflict interactions between states striving for leadership in the region (Iran, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt), especially as exemplified by the events of late 2023-2024, indicate a shift in the balance of power from a relatively static, stable to a dynamic, changing state, characterized by the authors as a state-process. Based on the results of the study, it was concluded that a polycentric world order of regional scale has already been formed in the Middle East. This polycentrism can be used, among other things, in the construction of regional security systems, which will allow interested countries to move from a limiting format of cooperation to a constructive, expanding one, involving in dialogue all parties whose participation is necessary to maintain indivisible regional security.